What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 5¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 5%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

EOs in Trump's second term on Kalshi

If the President signs above 800 Executive Orders during his second term, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Register.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
5¢ (now)	0.3¢	$3.33	5.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the President sign fewer than 300 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Below 300	5¢	5%	0.4¢	—	11%	11,220	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign more than 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Above 800	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	9,802	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 400 and 449 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 400 and 449	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	6,605	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 350 and 399 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 350 and 399	16¢	16%	0.9¢	—	32%	5,493	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 450 and 499 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 450 and 499	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	5,099	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 300 and 349 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 300 and 349	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	4,964	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 500 and 549 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 500 and 549	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	4,550	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 650 and 699 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 650 and 699	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	4,174	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 600 and 649 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 600 and 649	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	3,994	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 550 and 599 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 550 and 599	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	3,331	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 700 and 749 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 700 and 749	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	2,659	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC
Will the President sign between 750 and 800 Executive Orders between Jan 20, 2025 and Jan 20, 2029? · Between 750 and 800	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	1,339	Jan 21, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.