Markets › Kalshi › Sports
eSoccer Game on Kalshi
If Manchester Utd (Zaroth) wins the Spurs (Dzen) vs Manchester Utd (Zaroth) professional Valhalla Cup 4 2026 Week #46 eSoccer match originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 12:37 AM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: DRAFTED.GG.
Market says (typical open contract)
45%
Median YES price across 84 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
90% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 45¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.93 | 46.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| United States (Alicia) wins · United States (Alicia) | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 1,924 | Nov 24, 04:22 UTC |
| Spain (Nicol) wins · Spain (Nicol) | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 1,838 | Nov 24, 04:22 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 633 | Nov 24, 04:22 UTC |
| Mönchengladbach (Rooney) wins · Mönchengladbach (Rooney) | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 193 | Nov 24, 04:23 UTC |
| Freiburg (Danny) wins · Freiburg (Danny) | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 110 | Nov 24, 04:37 UTC |
| Freiburg (Danny) wins · Freiburg (Danny) | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 110 | Nov 24, 04:23 UTC |
| Portugal (Ellie) wins · Portugal (Ellie) | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 100 | Nov 24, 04:36 UTC |
| England (Lucy) wins · England (Lucy) | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 81% | 49 | Nov 24, 04:24 UTC |
| France (Quinnie) wins · France (Quinnie) | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 41 | Nov 24, 04:24 UTC |
| Stuttgart (Hurricane) wins · Stuttgart (Hurricane) | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 32 | Nov 24, 04:25 UTC |
| Nottingham Forest (Drakon) wins · Nottingham Forest (Drakon) | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 23 | Nov 24, 04:28 UTC |
| Frankfurt (Eder) wins · Frankfurt (Eder) | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 18 | Nov 24, 04:25 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 11 | Nov 24, 04:23 UTC |
| Manchester Utd (Zaroth) wins · Manchester Utd (Zaroth) | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:37 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:37 UTC |
| Spurs (Dzen) wins · Spurs (Dzen) | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:37 UTC |
| Newcastle Utd (Zaroth) wins · Newcastle Utd (Zaroth) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:24 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:24 UTC |
| Nottingham Forest (Drakon) wins · Nottingham Forest (Drakon) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:24 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:10 UTC |
| Chelsea (Dzen) wins · Chelsea (Dzen) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:10 UTC |
| Spurs (Drakon) wins · Spurs (Drakon) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:10 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:20 UTC |
| France (Quinnie) wins · France (Quinnie) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:20 UTC |
| Argentina (July) wins · Argentina (July) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:20 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:06 UTC |
| France (Quinnie) wins · France (Quinnie) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:06 UTC |
| England (Lucy) wins · England (Lucy) | 45¢ | 45% | 1.7¢ | — | 90% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:06 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:52 UTC |
| England (Lucy) wins · England (Lucy) | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:52 UTC |
| Argentina (July) wins · Argentina (July) | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:52 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:38 UTC |
| France (Quinnie) wins · France (Quinnie) | 33¢ | 33% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:38 UTC |
| Argentina (July) wins · Argentina (July) | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:38 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 24, 04:24 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:33 UTC |
| Sevilla FC (Rooney) wins · Sevilla FC (Rooney) | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:33 UTC |
| Villarreal CF (Danny) wins · Villarreal CF (Danny) | 47¢ | 47% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:33 UTC |
| Game ends in a tie · Tie | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:19 UTC |
| Sevilla FC (Rooney) wins · Sevilla FC (Rooney) | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 0 | Nov 24, 05:19 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 84 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.