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Will the EU apply its blocking statute to U.S. sanctions on the ICC? on Kalshi
If the European Commission announces its adoption of a delegated act adding U.S. sanctions measures targeting the International Criminal Court, including Executive Order 14203, to the Annex of the EU Blocking Statute (Council Regulation (EC) No 2271/96) before Jul 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Official Journal of the European Union, European Commission.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 36¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.24 | 37.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the EU apply its blocking statute to U.S. sanctions on the ICC before Jul 1, 2027? · Yes | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 2,625 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.