What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 54¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.61.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 56% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 54%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

EU long-term budget deal on Kalshi

If all 27 EU member states agree to or announce the final agreed terms of the overall political agreement on the 2028-2034 EU long-term budget (MFF), as officially declared by the European Council to have been reached by all 27 EU member states before Sep 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Ireland, European Council.

Market says (typical open contract)

54%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

92% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
54¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.61	55.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
EU long-term budget deal before 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.7¢	—	23%	2,178	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
EU long-term budget deal before September 2027? · Before Sep 1, 2027	76¢	76%	1.3¢	—	48%	0	Sep 01, 03:59 UTC
EU long-term budget deal before April 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	23¢	23%	1.2¢	—	46%	0	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
EU long-term budget deal before July 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	92%	0	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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