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EU settlement goods ban on Kalshi
If the European Union has formally adopted a binding EU-wide prohibition on imports of goods originating in Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, covering those goods generally as a class rather than only a narrow product category, after issuance and before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Council of the European Union.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Council of the European Union report adoption of an EU ban on Israeli settlement goods before Jan 1, 2027? · Yes | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 4,260 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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