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F1 Biggest Mover on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen has the largest positive differential between their starting grid position and their finishing position in the main race originally scheduled for November 21, 2026 at the 2026 Las Vegas Grand Prix, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIA.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Biggest Mover: Andrea Kimi Antonelli · Andrea Kimi Antonelli | 31¢ | 31% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 599 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Lando Norris · Lando Norris | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 227 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: George Russell · George Russell | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 219 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Max Verstappen · Max Verstappen | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 211 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Charles Leclerc · Charles Leclerc | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 205 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Lewis Hamilton · Lewis Hamilton | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 205 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Oscar Piastri · Oscar Piastri | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 201 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Lance Stroll · Lance Stroll | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Carlos Sainz Jr. · Carlos Sainz Jr. | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Sergio Perez · Sergio Perez | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Arvid Lindblad · Arvid Lindblad | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Liam Lawson · Liam Lawson | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Nico Hulkenberg · Nico Hulkenberg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Ryo Hirakawa · Ryo Hirakawa | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Isack Hadjar · Isack Hadjar | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Pierre Gasly · Pierre Gasly | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Franco Colapinto · Franco Colapinto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Valtteri Bottas · Valtteri Bottas | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Gabriel Bortoleto · Gabriel Bortoleto | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Oliver Bearman · Oliver Bearman | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Fernando Alonso · Fernando Alonso | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
| Biggest Mover: Alexander Albon · Alexander Albon | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 0 | Nov 29, 04:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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