Markets › Kalshi › Sports
F1 Retire on Kalshi
If Max Verstappen announces his retirement from F1 before the 2030 F1 season start date, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: ABC, Bleacher Report, The Wall Street Journal, ESPN, New York Times, Fox Sports, BBC Sport, AP, The Athletic, Reuters, Formula 1.
Market says (typical open contract)
19%
Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
38% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 19¢ (now) | 1.1¢ | $2.83 | 20.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2027 F1 season? · Before the 2027 season | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,880 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2029 F1 season? · Before the 2029 season | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 2,177 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2030 F1 season? · Before the 2030 season | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 1,947 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will Max Verstappen announce his retirement before the 2028 F1 season? · Before the 2028 season | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 1,716 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.