Markets › Kalshi › Economics
FAO Food Price Index in [month]? on Kalshi
If the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 is above 137.0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 137.0? · Above 137.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 136.0? · Above 136.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 135.0? · Above 135.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 134.0? · Above 134.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 133.0? · Above 133.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 132.0? · Above 132.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 131.0? · Above 131.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 130.0? · Above 130.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 129.0? · Above 129.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
| Will the FAO Food Price Index for November 2026 be above 128.0? · Above 128.0 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 04, 07:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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