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Will the FDA approve drug? on Kalshi
If the FDA approves intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma for marketing before Jul 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Food and Drug Administration.
Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 16 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 53¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.65 | 54.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2030? · Before Jan 1, 2030 | 53¢ | 53% | 1.7¢ | — | 94% | 3,474 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2031? · Before Jan 1, 2031 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 2,845 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,555 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 2,182 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2032? · Before Jan 1, 2032 | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 97% | 2,156 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 1,646 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 1,450 | Oct 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 1,367 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve CagriSema before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,357 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve midomafetamine / MDMA for PTSD before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,287 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 1,214 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 1,062 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve cytisinicline for smoking cessation before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 520 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 205 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 73 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
| Will the FDA approve intismeran autogene (V940/mRNA-4157) with pembrolizumab (KEYTRUDA) for adjuvant treatment of completely resected stage IIB-IV melanoma before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jul 01, 03:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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