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Fear and Greed index on Kalshi
If the value at 4:00 PM ET on Dec 4, 2026 is Extreme Greed, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: CNN Fear & Greed Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
17%
Median YES price across 20 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
34% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 17¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $2.91 | 18.0% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 13, 2026? · Extreme Greed | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,967 | Nov 20, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 20, 2026? · Extreme Greed | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,133 | Nov 27, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 13, 2026? · Greed | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 14,552 | Nov 20, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 27, 2026? · Extreme Greed | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 870 | Dec 04, 18:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 13, 2026? · Extreme Fear | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 841 | Nov 20, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 13, 2026? · Fear | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 458 | Nov 20, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 20, 2026? · Extreme Fear | 26¢ | 26% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 298 | Nov 27, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 20, 2026? · Fear | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 207 | Nov 27, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 20, 2026? · Neutral | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 200 | Nov 27, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 13, 2026? · Neutral | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 192 | Nov 20, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 20, 2026? · Greed | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 25 | Nov 27, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 27, 2026? · Neutral | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4 | Dec 04, 18:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Dec 4, 2026? · Extreme Greed | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Dec 11, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Dec 4, 2026? · Extreme Fear | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 0 | Dec 11, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Dec 4, 2026? · Neutral | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Dec 11, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Dec 4, 2026? · Greed | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | Dec 11, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Dec 4, 2026? · Fear | 39¢ | 39% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 0 | Dec 11, 21:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 27, 2026? · Extreme Fear | 27¢ | 27% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 0 | Dec 04, 18:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 27, 2026? · Greed | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Dec 04, 18:00 UTC |
| Fear & Greed Index on Nov 27, 2026? · Fear | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 0 | Dec 04, 18:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.