What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 0¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.49.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 0% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 0%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Number of rate changes on Kalshi

If the number of rate changes before 2027 is exactly 9, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

0% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 1? · Exactly 1	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	40%	70,056	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 2? · Exactly 2	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	55,136	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 3? · Exactly 3	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	36,499	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 5? · Exactly 5	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	2,328	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 4? · Exactly 4	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	2,321	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 6? · Exactly 6	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,518	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 12? · Exactly 12	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,424	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 10? · Exactly 10	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,419	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 7? · Exactly 7	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,381	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 8? · Exactly 8	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,377	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 11? · Exactly 11	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,371	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the number of rate changes before 2027 be exactly 9? · Exactly 9	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	0%	1,263	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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