Markets › Kalshi › Economics
Fed Combo on Kalshi
If ALL of the following occur for Dec 2026: Federal Funds Rate Decision: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics, Federal Reserve Board of Governors.
Market says (typical open contract)
13%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
26% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 13¢ (now) | 0.8¢ | $3.04 | 13.8% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? · Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: 0 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,844 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? · Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: 0 | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 13,849 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be no change AND dissents be >0 for Dec 2026? · Rate: No change, Dissents: >0 | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 8,224 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp hike AND dissents be >0 for Dec 2026? · Rate: 25bp hike, Dissents: >0 | 13¢ | 13% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 7,089 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be 25bp cut AND dissents be >0 for Dec 2026? · Rate: 25bp cut, Dissents: >0 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,848 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
| Will the Federal Funds Rate Decision be no change AND dissents be 0 for Dec 2026? · Rate: No change, Dissents: 0 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,273 | Dec 09, 18:55 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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