What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.31.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 6% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Economics

Fed meeting on Kalshi

If the Federal Reserve does a Hike of >25bps on January 26, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Federal Reserve.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 50 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

11% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
6¢ (now)	0.4¢	$3.29	6.4%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Makers also pay a smaller fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Hike 25bps	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	39%	1,501,001	Dec 09, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	1,378,633	Dec 09, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Hike >25bps	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	1,030,698	Dec 09, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Cut 25bps	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	795,715	Dec 09, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2026 meeting? · Cut >25bps	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	246,052	Dec 09, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Hike 25bps	20¢	20%	1.1¢	—	39%	204,750	Jan 27, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their July 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	92¢	92%	0.5¢	—	15%	113,021	Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	45%	85,587	Jan 27, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	82,104	Oct 27, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting? · Hike >25bps	2¢	2%	0.2¢	—	5%	78,012	Dec 08, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting? · Hike 25bps	16¢	16%	1.0¢	—	33%	69,046	Apr 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	53,550	Oct 27, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? · Hike 25bps	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	76%	46,055	Mar 17, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	42,400	Jan 27, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting? · Hike 25bps	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	33,415	Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their July 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	4%	33,057	Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their September 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	82¢	82%	1.1¢	—	37%	32,848	Sep 15, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting? · Hike 25bps	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	30,003	Dec 08, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their March 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	54¢	54%	1.7¢	—	93%	29,989	Mar 17, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their October 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	13%	27,847	Oct 27, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting? · Hike >25bps	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	23,541	Apr 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their April 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	75%	23,447	Apr 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their July 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	22,675	Jul 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their June 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	22,169	Jun 09, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Hike >25bps	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	20,675	Jan 27, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their January 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	18,854	Jan 27, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their June 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	17,191	Jun 09, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 25bps at their October 2027 meeting? · Hike 25bps	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	16,801	Oct 27, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their September 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	15,826	Sep 15, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their October 2027 meeting? · Hike >25bps	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	14,093	Oct 27, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their March 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	13,072	Mar 17, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their December 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	86¢	86%	0.9¢	—	29%	12,180	Dec 08, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their December 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	11,907	Dec 08, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting? · Hike >25bps	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	8,975	Mar 17, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their April 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	8,938	Apr 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their March 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	8,260	Mar 17, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their December 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	16%	5,821	Dec 08, 18:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by >25bps at their April 2027 meeting? · Cut >25bps	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	4,484	Apr 28, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Cut rates by 25bps at their September 2027 meeting? · Cut 25bps	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	3,894	Sep 15, 17:59 UTC
Will the Federal Reserve Hike rates by 0bps at their June 2027 meeting? · Fed maintains rate	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	59%	3,583	Jun 09, 17:59 UTC

Showing the 40 most traded of 50 open contracts.

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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