Markets › Kalshi › Mentions
Fed mention on Kalshi
If the Chair of the Federal Reserve says Volatility at his Dec 2026 post-FOMC meeting introductory remarks and Q+A, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 27 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
99% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 51¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.72 | 52.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kevin Warsh say Uncertainty at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Uncertainty | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 2,225 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Productivity at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Productivity | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 1,682 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Central Bank at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Central Bank | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 739 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Geopolitical at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Geopolitical | 77¢ | 77% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 319 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Volatility at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Volatility | 37¢ | 37% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 139 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Diesel at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Diesel | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 130 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say President at his Dec 2026 press conference? · President | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 129 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say AI / Artificial Intelligence at his Dec 2026 press conference? · AI / Artificial Intelligence | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 128 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Trump at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Trump | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 124 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Shock at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Shock | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 122 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Inflation Expectation at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Inflation Expectation | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 118 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Anchor / Anchored at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Anchor / Anchored | 62¢ | 62% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 106 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Projection at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Projection | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 105 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Consumer Confidence at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Consumer Confidence | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 82 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Dollar at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Dollar | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 57 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 31 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Restrictive at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Restrictive | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 29 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Balance Sheet at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Balance Sheet | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 61% | 27 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Credit at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Credit | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 22 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Dissent at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Dissent | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 20 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Egg at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Egg | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 18 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Independent / Independence at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Independent / Independence | 65¢ | 65% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 17 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Japan / Japanese / Yen at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Japan / Japanese / Yen | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 14 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Risk Management at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Risk Management | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 10 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Family Fight / Family Feud at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Family Fight / Family Feud | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 9 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Oil at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Oil | 63¢ | 63% | 1.6¢ | — | 74% | 3 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kevin Warsh say Event does not qualify at his Dec 2026 press conference? · Event does not qualify | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Dec 10, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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