What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 22¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.73.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 23% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 22%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Fetterman Party switch on Kalshi

If John Fetterman leaves, announces that they are leaving, is expelled from, or stops caucusing with the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, Fox News, MSNBC, Office of the Clerk of the U.S. House of Representatives, The Wall Street Journal, Semafor, Bloomberg News, The Information, CBS, NBC, the Secretary of the Senate, The Washington Post, Axios, CNN, Reuters, The New York Times, the Associated Press, Politico.

Market says (typical open contract)

22%

Median YES price across 4 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

44% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
22¢ (now)	1.2¢	$2.73	23.2%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	9%	18,632	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	18,131	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	13,523	Apr 01, 14:00 UTC
Will John Fetterman leave the Democratic party before Aug 1, 2027? · Before Aug 1, 2027	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	44%	11,356	Aug 01, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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