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FIBA Europe Cup Game on Kalshi
If Manchester Basketball wins the Elan Chalon vs Manchester Basketball men's professional FIBA Europe Cup basketball game originally scheduled for Nov 10, 2026 at 2:00 PM EST, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: FIBA Europe Cup, Sofascore, Flashscore.
Market says (typical open contract)
82%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
36% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 82¢ (now) | 1.0¢ | $0.63 | 83.0% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manchester Basketball wins · Manchester Basketball | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
| Elan Chalon wins · Elan Chalon | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 12, 19:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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