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Global account ownership be in the next Global Findex release on Kalshi
If the World Bank reports that the global account ownership in the next Global Findex release is above 86%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Bureau of Labor Statistics- Employment Situation, Bureau of Labor Statistics- Consumer Price Index.
Market says (typical open contract)
41%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
82% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 82%? · Above 82% | 62¢ | 62% | 1.7¢ | — | 77% | 48 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 86%? · Above 86% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 85%? · Above 85% | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 84%? · Above 84% | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 83%? · Above 83% | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 81%? · Above 81% | 81¢ | 81% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
| Will global account ownership in the next Global Findex release be above 80%? · Above 80% | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | Dec 31, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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