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FILM INDPENDENT SPIRIT AWARDS on Kalshi
If Tie wins the award for Best Cinematography at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Film Independent Spirit Awards.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tie win Best Cinematography award at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards? · Tie | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Norm Li win Best Cinematography award at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards? · Norm Li | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Nicole Hirsch Whitaker win Best Cinematography award at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards? · Nicole Hirsch Whitaker | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will David J. Thompson win Best Cinematography award at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards? · David J. Thompson | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alex Ashe win Best Cinematography award at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards? · Alex Ashe | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Adolpho Veloso win Best Cinematography award at the 41st Annual Film Independent Spirit Awards? · Adolpho Veloso | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Feb 15, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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