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Five-state senate combo on Kalshi

If a Democratic candidate in Maine's U.S. Senate election, a Democratic candidate in Michigan's U.S. Senate election, a Democratic candidate in New Hampshire's U.S. Senate election, a Democratic candidate in Alaska's U.S. Senate election, and a Democratic candidate in Ohio's U.S. Senate special election win their respective November 3, 2026 elections, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Alaska Division of Elections, Michigan Secretary of State, Maine Secretary of State, Division of Elections, Ohio Secretary of State, New Hampshire Secretary of State.

Market says (typical open contract)
96%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
7% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%
96¢ (now)0.3¢$0.1496.3%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will Democrats win all 5? · Democratic sweep96¢96%0.2¢—7%67,836Nov 03, 14:00 UTC
Will Democrats win Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio? · Maine, Michigan, New Hampshire, Ohio3¢3%0.2¢—7%26,819Nov 03, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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