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Number of visitors to Florida in [year] on Kalshi
If VISIT FLORIDA reports that the number of visitors to Florida in calendar year 2026 is above 148 million, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
Market says (typical open contract)
42%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
83% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 41¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $2.07 | 42.7% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 138 million? · Above 138 million | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 65,986 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 136 million? · Above 136 million | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 59,447 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 144 million? · Above 144 million | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 48,033 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 142 million? · Above 142 million | 42¢ | 42% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 43,860 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 140 million? · Above 140 million | 82¢ | 82% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 38,927 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 148 million? · Above 148 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 27,330 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of visitors to Florida in 2026 be above 146 million? · Above 146 million | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 19,206 | Feb 26, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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