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When will Freddie Mac IPO? on Kalshi
If Freddie Mac confirms an IPO before May 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the New York Times, ABC, Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, Financial Times, CNBC, Reuters, BBC.
Market says (typical open contract)
4%
Median YES price across 7 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
9% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 4¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $3.36 | 4.3% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before Jun 1, 2027 | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 2,903 | Jun 01, 03:59 UTC |
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before Jan 1, 2027 | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 1,716 | Jan 01, 04:59 UTC |
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before May 1, 2027 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 1,334 | May 01, 03:59 UTC |
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before Apr 1, 2027 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1,097 | Apr 01, 03:59 UTC |
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before Dec 1, 2026 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 999 | Dec 01, 04:59 UTC |
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before Feb 1, 2027 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 642 | Feb 01, 04:59 UTC |
| When will Freddie Mac officially announce an IPO? · Before Mar 1, 2027 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 551 | Mar 01, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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