Markets › Kalshi › Elections
French presidential election: 2nd place (1st round) on Kalshi
If Christine Lagarde finishes in 2nd place in the first round of the next French presidential election according to the certified results, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Conseil constitutionnel.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 15 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
5% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 3¢ (now) | 0.2¢ | $3.40 | 3.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will David Lisnard finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · David Lisnard | 16¢ | 16% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 4,916 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Marine Le Pen | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 3,463 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Raphaël Glucksmann | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 3,270 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 96% | 2,186 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Édouard Philippe finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Édouard Philippe | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 848 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Bardella finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Jordan Bardella | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 508 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gabriel Attal finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Gabriel Attal | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 508 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will François Hollande finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · François Hollande | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 508 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Retailleau finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Bruno Retailleau | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 508 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Xavier Bertrand finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Xavier Bertrand | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 454 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Tondelier finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Marine Tondelier | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 454 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will François Ruffin finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · François Ruffin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 454 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Éric Zemmour finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Éric Zemmour | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 454 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dominique de Villepin finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Dominique de Villepin | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 454 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Christine Lagarde finish 2nd in the first round of the next French presidential election? · Christine Lagarde | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Apr 18, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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