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Who will appear on the French presidential ballot? on Kalshi
If Christine Lagarde is officially certified, approved, or confirmed to appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election before Jun 30, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: NBC, ABC, The Information, relevant state Secretary of State or chief election official, official state election websites, relevant state board of elections, The Washington Post, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, Politico, Axios, Semafor, MSNBC, Bloomberg News, the Associated Press, Reuters, CBS, The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 28 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gabriel Attal appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Gabriel Attal | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 5,562 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Éric Zemmour appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Éric Zemmour | 72¢ | 72% | 1.4¢ | — | 55% | 5,000 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bruno Retailleau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Bruno Retailleau | 29¢ | 29% | 1.4¢ | — | 58% | 3,924 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will François Hollande appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · François Hollande | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 51% | 3,233 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Raphaël Glucksmann appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Raphaël Glucksmann | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 3,150 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Dominique de Villepin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Dominique de Villepin | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,977 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Édouard Philippe appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Édouard Philippe | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 1,116 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean Lassalle appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Jean Lassalle | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 914 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Bernard Cazeneuve appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Bernard Cazeneuve | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 695 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Fabien Roussel appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Fabien Roussel | 84¢ | 84% | 1.0¢ | — | 33% | 632 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Olivier Faure appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Olivier Faure | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 558 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jordan Bardella appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Jordan Bardella | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 495 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will François Ruffin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · François Ruffin | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 412 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Karim Bouamrane appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Karim Bouamrane | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 365 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Le Pen appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Marine Le Pen | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 351 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will François Asselineau appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · François Asselineau | 21¢ | 21% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 338 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jérôme Guedj appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Jérôme Guedj | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 272 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nicolas Dupont-Aignan appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Nicolas Dupont-Aignan | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 193 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Marine Tondelier appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Marine Tondelier | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 59% | 139 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nathalie Arthaud appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Nathalie Arthaud | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 8 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Jean-Luc Mélenchon | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 6 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Clémentine Autain appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Clémentine Autain | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 1 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Gérald Darmanin appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Gérald Darmanin | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Christine Lagarde appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Christine Lagarde | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will David Lisnard appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · David Lisnard | 51¢ | 51% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Natacha Polony appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Natacha Polony | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Xavier Bertrand appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Xavier Bertrand | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Teddy Riner appear on the official candidate list for the first round of the 2027 French presidential election? · Teddy Riner | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Jun 30, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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