What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 6¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.27.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 7% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 6%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Countries FTAs on Kalshi

If a free trade deal with United Kingdom has become law, either through Senate ratification and Presidential approval or through Congressional-Executive Agreement and the signature of the President (or at least, signing the implementing legislation) after Issuance before Jan 1, 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Library of Congress.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

13% 😈

Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
7¢ (now)	0.5¢	$3.25	7.5%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · China	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	5,797	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · Argentina	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	4,941	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · India	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	17%	1,573	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · Taiwan	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	1,070	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · Kenya	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	911	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · Indonesia	7¢	7%	0.5¢	—	14%	387	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · European Union	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	222	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · United Kingdom	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	12%	179	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC
Will Trump make a new before Jan 1, 2027? · Switzerland	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	11%	16	Jan 01, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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