What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

How much will Fyre Fest sell for? on Kalshi

If the first price announced for a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket by FF2 Operations LLC is at least $5000, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: ABC, FF2 Operations LLC, The Information, MSNBC, FF2 Operations LLC websites, CBS, the Associated Press, The Washington Post, FF2 Operations LLC executive leadership, Axios, CNN, The Wall Street Journal, Fox News, The New York Times, NBC, Semafor, Politico, Bloomberg News, Reuters.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

100% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢ (now)	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $100	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	2,803	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $1400	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	983	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $1750	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	45%	597	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $1250	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	159	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $1000	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	155	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $750	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	97%	137	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $2000	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	67	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $500	51¢	51%	1.7¢	—	98%	61	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $3000	50¢	50%	1.8¢	—	100%	58	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
How much will a Fyre Festival 2 General Admission Ticket cost? · At least $5000	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	56	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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