What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 43¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.00.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 45% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 43%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Gangneung National Assembly by-election winner on Kalshi

If the Rebuilding Korea Party wins the 2027 Gangneung National Assembly by-election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: National Election Commission.

Market says (typical open contract)

43%

Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

86% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
43¢ (now)	1.7¢	$2.00	44.7%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Closes
Will the Rebuilding Korea Party win the 2027 Gangneung National Assembly by-election? · Rebuilding Korea Party	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	6%	Apr 07, 14:00 UTC
Will the People Power Party win the 2027 Gangneung National Assembly by-election? · People Power Party	52¢	52%	1.7¢	—	96%	Apr 07, 14:00 UTC
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win the 2027 Gangneung National Assembly by-election? · Democratic Party of Korea	43¢	43%	1.7¢	—	86%	Apr 07, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.