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General election margins of victory on Kalshi
If the margin of victory for Ashley Moody in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida is within 8% to 10%, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: official election authority responsible for certifying results in <geography>.
Market says (typical open contract)
1%
Median YES price across 107 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
2% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be at least 8%? · James Talarico, ≥8% | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 185,354 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 0% and 2%? · James Talarico, 0-2% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 121,303 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 2% and 4%? · James Talarico, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 115,058 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 6% and 8%? · James Talarico, 6-8% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 101,263 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for James Talarico in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Texas be between 4% and 6%? · James Talarico, 4-6% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 101,152 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Annie Andrews in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be between 0% and 2%? · Annie Andrews, 0-2% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 56,928 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan be between 4% and 6%? · Abdul El-Sayed, 4-6% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 43,645 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be at least 6%? · Gina Hinojosa, ≥6% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 41,650 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan be between 6% and 8%? · Abdul El-Sayed, 6-8% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 38,709 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan be at least 10%? · Abdul El-Sayed, ≥10% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 38,019 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 0% and 2%? · Gina Hinojosa, 0-2% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 29,222 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Byron Donalds in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida be between 0% and 2%? · Byron Donalds, 0-2% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 29,063 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 4% and 6%? · Gina Hinojosa, 4-6% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 28,134 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan be between 2% and 4%? · Abdul El-Sayed, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,750 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Gina Hinojosa in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Texas be between 2% and 4%? · Gina Hinojosa, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 27,161 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Byron Donalds in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida be between 12% and 14%? · Byron Donalds, 12-14% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,545 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan be between 0% and 2%? · Abdul El-Sayed, 0-2% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 25,455 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Abdul El-Sayed in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Michigan be between 8% and 10%? · Abdul El-Sayed, 8-10% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 25,236 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Ashley Moody in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be between 10% and 12%? · Ashley Moody, 10-12% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 23,613 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Adam Hamilton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas be between 0% and 2%? · Adam Hamilton, 0-2% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 22,794 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa be between 0% and 2%? · Josh Turek, 0-2% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 21,277 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Annie Andrews in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be between 2% and 4%? · Annie Andrews, 2-4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 20,904 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Annie Andrews in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be between 4% and 6%? · Annie Andrews, 4-6% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 20,437 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Troy Jackson in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine be between 2% and 4%? · Troy Jackson, 2-4% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 19,924 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Annie Andrews in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in South Carolina be at least 6%? · Annie Andrews, ≥6% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 18,109 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be between 0% and 2%? · Roy Cooper, 0-2% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 16,952 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Troy Jackson in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine be between 4% and 6%? · Troy Jackson, 4-6% | 78¢ | 78% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 16,076 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Adam Hamilton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas be at least 8%? · Adam Hamilton, ≥8% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 15,299 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Byron Donalds in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Florida be between 2% and 4%? · Byron Donalds, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,686 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be between 12% and 14%? · Roy Cooper, 12-14% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14,188 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Amy Acton in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Ohio be between 4% and 6%? · Amy Acton, 4-6% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 12,697 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Troy Jackson in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Maine be between 0% and 2%? · Troy Jackson, 0-2% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 11,926 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Ashley Moody in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be between 2% and 4%? · Ashley Moody, 2-4% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 11,518 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Josh Turek in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Iowa be between 2% and 4%? · Josh Turek, 2-4% | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 11,088 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Jon Ossoff in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Georgia be at least 20%? · Jon Ossoff, ≥20% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 10,722 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Rob Sand in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Iowa be at least 14%? · Rob Sand, ≥14% | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 10,035 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Roy Cooper in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in North Carolina be between 18% and 20%? · Roy Cooper, 18-20% | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 92% | 9,997 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Amy Acton in the 2026 gubernatorial election in Ohio be between 2% and 4%? · Amy Acton, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,918 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Ashley Moody in the 2026 U.S. Senate special election in Florida be at least 16%? · Ashley Moody, ≥16% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,594 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
| Will the margin of victory for Adam Hamilton in the 2026 U.S. Senate election in Kansas be between 2% and 4%? · Adam Hamilton, 2-4% | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 9,413 | Nov 03, 14:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 107 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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