What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 2¢, about 0¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $3.45.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 2% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 2%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

German presidential election on Kalshi

If Udo Di Fabio wins the 2027 German presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: German Bundestag.

Market says (typical open contract)

Median YES price across 9 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

3% 😈

All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
1¢ (now)	0.1¢	$3.47	1.1%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Ilse Aigner win the 2027 German presidential election? · Ilse Aigner	94¢	94%	0.4¢	—	11%	1,883	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Julia Klöckner win the 2027 German presidential election? · Julia Klöckner	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	694	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Karin Prien win the 2027 German presidential election? · Karin Prien	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	398	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Boris Rhein win the 2027 German presidential election? · Boris Rhein	1¢	1%	0.1¢	—	2%	210	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Udo Di Fabio win the 2027 German presidential election? · Udo Di Fabio	0¢	0%	0.0¢	—	1%	130	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer win the 2027 German presidential election? · Annegret Kramp-Karrenbauer	5¢	5%	0.3¢	—	10%	5	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Monika Grütters win the 2027 German presidential election? · Monika Grütters	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Hape Kerkeling win the 2027 German presidential election? · Hape Kerkeling	2¢	2%	0.1¢	—	3%	0	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC
Will Gabriele Krone-Schmalz win the 2027 German presidential election? · Gabriele Krone-Schmalz	4¢	4%	0.3¢	—	8%	0	Jan 30, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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