Markets › Kalshi › Commodities
Gold Hourly on Kalshi
If the close price of the 1-minute candlestick for gold on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM EST is above 4149.99 USD/ounce, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Pyth - Gold.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 109 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the gold close price be above 4107.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4107.99 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 715 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4111.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4111.99 | 73¢ | 73% | 1.4¢ | — | 54% | 698 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4109.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4109.99 | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 27% | 410 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4113.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4113.99 | 54¢ | 54% | 1.7¢ | — | 93% | 268 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4115.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4115.99 | 35¢ | 35% | 1.6¢ | — | 70% | 234 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4117.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4117.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 181 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4103.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4103.99 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 83 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4105.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4105.99 | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 82 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4119.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4119.99 | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 69 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4099.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4099.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 67 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4101.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4101.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 43 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4095.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4095.99 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 1 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4149.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4149.99 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4149.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4149.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4147.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4147.99 | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4145.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4145.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4147.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4147.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4145.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4145.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4143.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4143.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4141.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4141.99 | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4143.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4143.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4141.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4141.99 | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4139.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4139.99 | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4139.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4139.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4137.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 12:00 AM ET? · Above $4137.99 | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 10, 05:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4137.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4137.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4135.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4135.99 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4133.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4133.99 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4131.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4131.99 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4129.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4129.99 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4127.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4127.99 | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4125.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4125.99 | 18¢ | 18% | 1.0¢ | — | 36% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4123.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4123.99 | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 39% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4121.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4121.99 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4119.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4119.99 | 25¢ | 25% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4117.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4117.99 | 36¢ | 36% | 1.6¢ | — | 73% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4115.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4115.99 | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4113.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4113.99 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4111.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4111.99 | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 87% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the gold close price be above 4109.99 USD/ounce on November 10, 2026 at 1:00 AM ET? · Above $4109.99 | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 0 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 109 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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