What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 24¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $2.64.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 26% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 24%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Financials

Google KPI on Kalshi

If Alphabet Inc. reports above 223000 headcount in Q1 2027, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Fiscal.ai.

Market says (typical open contract)

24%

Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

49% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
24¢ (now)	1.3¢	$2.66	25.3%
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 209 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 209 thousand	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	85%	883	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 203 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 203 thousand	95¢	95%	0.3¢	—	10%	807	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 223 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 223 thousand	3¢	3%	0.2¢	—	7%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 217 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 217 thousand	6¢	6%	0.4¢	—	13%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 216 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 216 thousand	10¢	10%	0.6¢	—	19%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 215 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 215 thousand	12¢	12%	0.8¢	—	25%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 214 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 214 thousand	18¢	18%	1.0¢	—	36%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 213 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 213 thousand	24¢	24%	1.3¢	—	49%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 212 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 212 thousand	32¢	32%	1.5¢	—	63%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 211 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 211 thousand	40¢	40%	1.7¢	—	81%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC
Will Alphabet Inc. report above 210 thousand headcount in Q1 2027? · Above 210 thousand	48¢	48%	1.7¢	—	97%	0	Aug 26, 20:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.