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Google KPI on Kalshi
If Alphabet Inc. reports above 8% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
34%
Median YES price across 23 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
69% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 34¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.31 | 35.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 208000 total number of employees in 2026? · Above 208000 | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 8,436 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 188000 total number of employees in 2026? · Above 188000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 8,158 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 196000 total number of employees in 2026? · Above 196000 | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 6,341 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 204000 total number of employees in 2026? · Above 204000 | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 64% | 5,961 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 200000 total number of employees in 2026? · Above 200000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1,676 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 12% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 12% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 1,542 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 10% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 10% | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 1,048 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 18% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 18% | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,036 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 8% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 8% | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 997 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 16% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 16% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 653 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 14% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 14% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 504 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report Above 6% google search paid clicks change in fiscal 2026? · Above 6% | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 81 | May 05, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 192000 total number of employees in 2026? · Above 192000 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 54 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 212000 total number of employees in fiscal 2026? · Above 212000 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 35 | Mar 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 4% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 4% | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 8% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 8% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 7% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 7% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 6% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 6% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 5% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 3% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 3% | 83¢ | 83% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 2% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 2% | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 1% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 1% | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Alphabet Inc. report above 0% google search cost-per-click change in fiscal 2026? · Above 0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | May 04, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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