Markets › Kalshi › Elections
House Republican Conference Chair (120th Congress) on Kalshi
If Lisa McClain wins the House Republican Conference Chair election for the 120th Congress, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: House Republican Conference.
Market says (typical open contract)
24%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
47% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 23¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $2.70 | 24.2% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Lisa McClain win the House Republican Conference Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Lisa McClain | 93¢ | 93% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 605 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Erin Houchin win the House Republican Conference Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Erin Houchin | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 47% | 219 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Greg Steube win the House Republican Conference Chair election for the 120th Congress? · Greg Steube | 15¢ | 15% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 14 | Nov 30, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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