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Republican wins in Republican-favored Senate races on Kalshi
If the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party is at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press.
Market says (typical open contract)
100%
Median YES price across 3 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 99¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $0.04 | 99.1% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 12 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 12 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 35,359 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 11 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 11 | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 15,206 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of the 13 Republican-favored 2026 U.S. Senate general elections (including special elections) listed in the Additional Details won by a nominee of the Republican Party be at least 13 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · All 13 | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 3,326 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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