Markets › Kalshi › Economics
What will [Country]’s government budget balance be in [Year]? on Kalshi
If Italy’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 is above -4.5% of GDP, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: International Monetary Fund.
Market says (typical open contract)
32%
Median YES price across 49 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
63% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 32¢ (now) | 1.5¢ | $2.38 | 33.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.5% of GDP? · Above -5.5% of GDP | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 14,818 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Germany’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.0% of GDP? · Above -5.0% of GDP | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 13,765 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.0% of GDP? · Above -5.0% of GDP | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 13,196 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -8.5% of GDP? · Above -8.5% of GDP | 61¢ | 61% | 1.7¢ | — | 78% | 12,197 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -7.5% of GDP? · Above -7.5% of GDP | 14¢ | 14% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 11,846 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -4.5% of GDP? · Above -4.5% of GDP | 68¢ | 68% | 1.5¢ | — | 65% | 10,865 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Germany’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -4.5% of GDP? · Above -4.5% of GDP | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 9,926 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.5% of GDP? · Above -3.5% of GDP | 20¢ | 20% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 6,812 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -0.5% of GDP? · Above -0.5% of GDP | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 6,660 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Germany’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.5% of GDP? · Above -3.5% of GDP | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 6,408 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -8.0% of GDP? · Above -8.0% of GDP | 34¢ | 34% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 5,385 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will France’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.0% of GDP? · Above -5.0% of GDP | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 48% | 5,144 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -1.0% of GDP? · Above -1.0% of GDP | 14¢ | 14% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 4,670 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -7.0% of GDP? · Above -7.0% of GDP | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 4,560 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -4.0% of GDP? · Above -4.0% of GDP | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 4,042 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -7.5% of GDP? · Above -7.5% of GDP | 12¢ | 12% | 0.7¢ | — | 24% | 3,999 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -8.0% of GDP? · Above -8.0% of GDP | 40¢ | 40% | 1.7¢ | — | 79% | 3,871 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -1.5% of GDP? · Above -1.5% of GDP | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 45% | 3,827 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Germany’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -4.0% of GDP? · Above -4.0% of GDP | 58¢ | 58% | 1.7¢ | — | 83% | 3,385 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -9.0% of GDP? · Above -9.0% of GDP | 84¢ | 84% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 3,297 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will France’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -6.5% of GDP? · Above -6.5% of GDP | 97¢ | 97% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 3,030 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will France’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -5.5% of GDP? · Above -5.5% of GDP | 79¢ | 79% | 1.2¢ | — | 42% | 951 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United Kingdom’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -2.5% of GDP? · Above -2.5% of GDP | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 670 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will France’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -6.0% of GDP? · Above -6.0% of GDP | 90¢ | 90% | 0.7¢ | — | 21% | 413 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -2.0% of GDP? · Above -2.0% of GDP | 66¢ | 66% | 1.6¢ | — | 69% | 275 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Italy’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.5% of GDP? · Above -3.5% of GDP | 89¢ | 89% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 250 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.5% of GDP? · Above -3.5% of GDP | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 250 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.0% of GDP? · Above -3.0% of GDP | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 250 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Germany’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.0% of GDP? · Above -3.0% of GDP | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 234 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -6.5% of GDP? · Above -6.5% of GDP | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 212 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -7.0% of GDP? · Above -7.0% of GDP | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 181 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Germany’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -2.5% of GDP? · Above -2.5% of GDP | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 102 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Japan’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -2.5% of GDP? · Above -2.5% of GDP | 88¢ | 88% | 0.7¢ | — | 23% | 100 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -9.5% of GDP? · Above -9.5% of GDP | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 92 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Italy’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -3.0% of GDP? · Above -3.0% of GDP | 69¢ | 69% | 1.5¢ | — | 62% | 1 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will France’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -4.0% of GDP? · Above -4.0% of GDP | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 1 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Italy’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -4.0% of GDP? · Above -4.0% of GDP | 95¢ | 95% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will China’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -9.0% of GDP? · Above -9.0% of GDP | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 16% | 0 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will Italy’s general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -2.5% of GDP? · Above -2.5% of GDP | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
| Will the United States’ general government net lending/borrowing balance for 2026 be above -6.5% of GDP? · Above -6.5% of GDP | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Apr 20, 12:59 UTC |
Showing the 40 most traded of 49 open contracts.
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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