What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 62¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.33.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 64% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 62%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Elections

Kentucky Governor Democratic nominee on Kalshi

If Rocky Adkins wins the nomination for the Democratic Party to contest the 2027 Kentucky Governorship, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: Kentucky State Board of Elections.

Market says (typical open contract)

62%

Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

76% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
62¢ (now)	1.6¢	$1.33	63.6%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Jacqueline Coleman be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Jacqueline Coleman	39¢	39%	1.7¢	—	78%	74	May 17, 14:00 UTC
Will Rocky Adkins be the Democratic nominee for Governor in Kentucky? · Rocky Adkins	62¢	62%	1.6¢	—	76%	51	May 17, 14:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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