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ChatGPT App downloads on Kalshi
If the Carbon Arc ChatGPT App downloads (November 2026) for November 2026 is above 122 , then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Carbon Arc.
Market says (typical open contract)
80%
Median YES price across 11 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
41% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 79¢ (now) | 1.2¢ | $0.73 | 80.2% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 54.5 ? · Above 54.5 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 8,375 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 80 ? · Above 80 | 67¢ | 67% | 1.5¢ | — | 66% | 1,797 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 101 ? · Above 101 | 19¢ | 19% | 1.1¢ | — | 38% | 1,737 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 68.5 ? · Above 68.5 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 1,161 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 61.5 ? · Above 61.5 | 98¢ | 98% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 1,022 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 72 ? · Above 72 | 92¢ | 92% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 615 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 76 ? · Above 76 | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 41% | 557 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 122 ? · Above 122 | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 499 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 111.5 ? · Above 111.5 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 364 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 90.5 ? · Above 90.5 | 23¢ | 23% | 1.2¢ | — | 46% | 335 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
| Will ChatGPT App downloads for November 2026 be above 65 ? · Above 65 | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 283 | Dec 08, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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