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Graham Act sanctions on Kalshi

If the taking effect of any sanction, restriction or tariff under the Lindsey O. Graham Sanctioning Russia and Iran Act of 2026 after President Trump's October 16, 2026 waiver and before January 1, 2028 is confirmed by any of the Source Agencies after Issuance and before Jan 1, 2028, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: AP, ABC, Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, The Information, Bloomberg, CBS, NBC, Axios, The Washington Post, CNN, Semafor, Politico, MSNBC, Reuters, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)
40%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
81% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
41¢ (now)1.7¢$2.0742.7%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the Graham Act sanctions take effect before 2027? · Before 202716¢16%0.9¢—31%200Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will the Graham Act sanctions take effect before 2028? · Before 202840¢40%1.7¢—81%0Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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