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Grammy for Album of the Year on Kalshi
If Through the Wall has won Album of the Year at the 69th Annual Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Recording Academy.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 13 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · you seem pretty sad for a girl so in love | 44¢ | 44% | 1.7¢ | — | 89% | 26,039 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lux win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Lux | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 43% | 20,430 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Art of Loving win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Art of Loving | 18¢ | 18% | 1.1¢ | — | 37% | 15,940 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Dandelion win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Dandelion | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 10,686 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Life of a Showgirl win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Life of a Showgirl | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 9,623 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Great Divide win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Great Divide | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 9,227 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Lost Weekend win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Lost Weekend | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 8,772 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Kiss All the Time. Disco, Occasionally | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 3,309 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will The Romantics win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · The Romantic | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,757 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Tie win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Tie | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 2,121 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Arirang win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Arirang | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,643 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will ICEMAN win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · ICEMAN | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 1,102 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
| Will Through the Wall win Album of the Year at the Grammys? · Through the Wall | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 100 | Dec 31, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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