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Grammy nominees for Song of the Year on Kalshi
If Risk It All has been nominated for Song of the Year at the 69th Grammy Awards, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Recording Academy.
Market says (typical open contract)
7%
Median YES price across 31 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
14% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 7¢ (now) | 0.5¢ | $3.25 | 7.5% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · The Fate of Ophelia | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 35,636 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · I Knew It, I Knew You | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 13,266 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · hate that i made you love me | 70¢ | 70% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 7,897 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · I Just Might | 2¢ | 2% | 0.2¢ | — | 5% | 7,231 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · WHERE IS MY HUSBAND! | 86¢ | 86% | 0.8¢ | — | 28% | 6,060 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · drop dead | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 5,234 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Choosin' Texas | 85¢ | 85% | 0.9¢ | — | 30% | 4,773 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · the cure | 86¢ | 86% | 0.9¢ | — | 29% | 4,668 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Aperture | 24¢ | 24% | 1.3¢ | — | 49% | 2,718 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Man I Need | 90¢ | 90% | 0.6¢ | — | 19% | 2,636 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · So Easy (To Fall In Love) | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 3% | 1,749 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Berghain | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 1,688 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · The Great Divide | 41¢ | 41% | 1.7¢ | — | 82% | 696 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Risk It All | 82¢ | 82% | 1.0¢ | — | 35% | 647 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Die On This Hill | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | — | 80% | 377 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Dracula (with JENNIE) | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 75% | 283 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · E85 | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 17% | 218 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Lost Boys | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 32% | 76 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Hit the Wall | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 29 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Dai Dai | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 6 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Everything Hallelujah | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · White Feather Hawk Tail Deer Hunter | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · RUNWAY | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · girl, get up. | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Zoo | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Chanel | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Bring Your Love | 48¢ | 48% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Babydoll | 4¢ | 4% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Oh Yeah? | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Boston | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
| 2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year? · Iloveitiloveitiloveit | 7¢ | 7% | 0.5¢ | — | 14% | 0 | Nov 01, 15:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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