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How much will Greenland be acquired for? on Kalshi
If the Total Monetary Consideration for a U.S. Acquisition of Greenland is exactly $0 / No Acquisition during Trump's term, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The New York Times.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 09:57 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
4% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.43 | 2.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be no U.S. acquisition of Greenland during Trump's term? · $0 / No Acquisition | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 894,502 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay between $600 billion and $899 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $600 billion to $899 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 203,651 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay between $900 billion and $1199 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $900 billion to $1199 billion | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 132,072 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay between $10 billion and $99 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $10 billion to $99 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 130,714 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay between $300 billion and $599 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $300 billion to $599 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 121,345 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay between $100 billion and $299 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $100 billion to $299 billion | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | — | 4% | 121,061 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay between $1 billion and $9 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $1 billion to $9 billion | 1¢ | 1% | 0.1¢ | — | 2% | 104,801 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
| Will the U.S. pay at least $1200 billion for Greenland during Trump's term? · $1.2 trillion or more | 1¢ | 1% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 93,908 | Jan 22, 04:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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