Markets › Kalshi › Elections
Guatemala Presidency on Kalshi
If Zury Ríos wins the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: the official electoral commission, constitutional court, or equivalent electoral authority of the relevant jurisdiction.
Market says (typical open contract)
9%
Median YES price across 8 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
18% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 9¢ (now) | 0.6¢ | $3.19 | 9.6% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Neto Bran win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Neto Bran | 30¢ | 30% | 1.5¢ | — | 60% | 448 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Carlos Pineda win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Carlos Pineda | 17¢ | 17% | 1.0¢ | — | 34% | 95 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Zury Ríos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Zury Ríos | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Sandra Torres win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Sandra Torres | 9¢ | 9% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 0 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Roberto Arzú win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Roberto Arzú | 12¢ | 12% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Nery Ramos win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Nery Ramos | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 10% | 0 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Luis Aguirre win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Luis Aguirre | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
| Will Armando Castillo win the 2027 Guatemalan presidential election? · Armando Castillo | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 26, 14:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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