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How many Harris-won districts will Republicans win in 2026? on Kalshi
If the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 is at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Associated Press, Office of the Clerk, U.S. House of Representatives.
Market says (typical open contract)
50%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
100% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ (now) | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 3 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 3 | 49¢ | 49% | 1.7¢ | — | 98% | 205 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 4 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 4 | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 5 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 8 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 8 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 6 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 6 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.7¢ | — | 99% | 0 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 2 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 2 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
| Will the number of Republican U.S. House members elected from the 201 districts that Kamala Harris carried in 2024 be at least 1 at the November 3, 2026 general election? · At least 1 | 50¢ | 50% | 1.8¢ | — | 100% | 0 | Dec 15, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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