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First Circuit rules on Harvard's federal funding appeal on Kalshi

If the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit affirms in its entirety the district court's October 20, 2025 final judgment for Harvard in President and Fellows of Harvard College v. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, No. 25-2230 (1st Cir.) before Jan 1, 2029, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit, PACER.

Market says (typical open contract)
53%
Median YES price across 1 open contract, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
94% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy atFee per contractOn $50Win rate to break even
30¢1.5¢$2.4531.5%
50¢1.8¢$1.7551.7%
53¢ (now)1.7¢$1.6554.7%
70¢1.5¢$1.0571.5%
90¢0.6¢$0.3590.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

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Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
ContractYES priceImpliedFee at this priceReal-world oddsLuck neededVolumeCloses
Will the U.S. Court of Appeals for the First Circuit rule affirms in its entirety the district court's October 20, 2025 final judgment for Harvard? · Before 202953¢53%1.7¢—94%8,492Jan 01, 04:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

  • Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
  • The venue, on every fee.
  • Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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