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Home Depot KPI on Kalshi
If Home Depot Inc. reports Above 405000000 customer transactions in Q3 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
56%
Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
88% 😈
Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 56¢ (now) | 1.7¢ | $1.54 | 57.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 405 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 405 million | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 875 | Mar 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 390 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 390 million | 56¢ | 56% | 1.7¢ | — | 88% | 369 | Mar 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 400 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 400 million | 10¢ | 10% | 0.6¢ | — | 20% | 319 | Mar 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 395 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 395 million | 26¢ | 26% | 1.3¢ | — | 52% | 231 | Mar 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 380 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 380 million | 91¢ | 91% | 0.6¢ | — | 18% | 107 | Mar 17, 05:00 UTC |
| Will Home Depot Inc. report Above 385 million customer transactions in Q3 2026? · Above 385 million | 80¢ | 80% | 1.1¢ | — | 40% | 73 | Mar 17, 05:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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