What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 78¢, about 1¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $0.75.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 80% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 78%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Politics

Hegseth out by...? on Kalshi

If Pete Hegseth leaves as Secretary of Defense before Nov 16, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: person, The Wall Street Journal, Bloomberg News, The Washington Post, Fox News, Reuters, CNN, official government records and registries, the body, agency, company, organization, or entity at which role is held, the Associated Press, Politico, the New York Times.

Market says (typical open contract)

78%

Median YES price across 10 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

43% 😈

Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
79¢ (now)	1.2¢	$0.73	80.2%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Dec 1, 2026? · Before Dec 1, 2026	22¢	22%	1.2¢	—	43%	962,442	Dec 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2027? · Before Jan 1, 2027	38¢	38%	1.6¢	—	75%	451,274	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Feb 1, 2027? · Before Feb 1, 2027	58¢	58%	1.7¢	—	83%	268,370	Feb 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Apr 1, 2027? · Before Apr 1, 2027	70¢	70%	1.5¢	—	59%	191,160	Apr 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Nov 16, 2026? · Before Nov 16, 2026	8¢	8%	0.5¢	—	15%	149,653	Nov 16, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2027? · Before Jul 1, 2027	78¢	78%	1.2¢	—	43%	33,555	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Oct 1, 2027? · Before Oct 1, 2027	80¢	80%	1.1¢	—	41%	13,236	Oct 01, 03:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2028? · Before Jan 1, 2028	84¢	84%	0.9¢	—	31%	12,710	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jan 1, 2029? · Before Jan 1, 2029	93¢	93%	0.5¢	—	14%	8,972	Jan 01, 04:59 UTC
Will Pete Hegseth be out as Secretary of Defense before Jul 1, 2028? · Before Jul 1, 2028	87¢	87%	0.8¢	—	26%	7,974	Jul 01, 03:59 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

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