Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Highest temperature in Chicago on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Chicago (CLIMDW) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 65° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
0%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
16%
For the most traded contract (66° or above): market 52%, our simple model 16%. NWS forecast high 63°F for 2026-11-10 at Chicago (Midway), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
1% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on Nov 9, 2026? · 59° to 60° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 20,903 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Nov 9, 2026? · 61° to 62° | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 13,497 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >62° on Nov 9, 2026? · 63° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,790 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° on Nov 9, 2026? · 57° to 58° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 10,427 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >65° on Nov 10, 2026? · 66° or above | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | 16% | 97% | 5,945 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 55-56° on Nov 9, 2026? · 55° to 56° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 3,774 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <55° on Nov 9, 2026? · 54° or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 2,341 | Nov 10, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 62-63° on Nov 10, 2026? · 62° to 63° | 5¢ | 5% | 0.3¢ | 31% | 10% | 1,885 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 64-65° on Nov 10, 2026? · 64° to 65° | 46¢ | 46% | 1.7¢ | 26% | 91% | 1,838 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 60-61° on Nov 10, 2026? · 60° to 61° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 19% | 3% | 1,738 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 58-59° on Nov 10, 2026? · 58° to 59° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 7% | 1% | 851 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <58° on Nov 10, 2026? · 57° or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 1% | 1% | 123 | Nov 11, 07:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.