Markets › Kalshi › Climate and Weather
Trenton, NJ Daily Max Temp on Kalshi
If the maximum temperature recorded at Trenton (CLITTN) for Nov 10, 2026, is greater than 68° fahrenheit according to The Weather Company, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: The Weather Company.
Market says (typical open contract)
2%
Median YES price across 12 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
26%
For the most traded contract (65° to 66°): market 38%, our simple model 26%. NWS forecast high 64°F for 2026-11-10 at Trenton (TTN), typical error ±2.5°F. This model is untested: we score it against settled results every day and will publish whether it or the market called it better. Until then, treat the market as the better forecast; a gap is not an edge.
Luck needed meter
3% 😈
All but decided, says the market. The remaining cents are the price of the rare surprise, and the fee comes off them first.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1¢ (now) | 0.1¢ | $3.47 | 1.1% |
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Nov 9, 2026? · 61° to 62° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 491 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 57-58° on Nov 9, 2026? · 57° to 58° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 491 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 59-60° on Nov 9, 2026? · 59° to 60° | 100¢ | 100% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 465 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 65-66° on Nov 10, 2026? · 65° to 66° | 38¢ | 38% | 1.7¢ | 26% | 77% | 267 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <57° on Nov 9, 2026? · 56° or below | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 120 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Nov 9, 2026? · 63° to 64° | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 49 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be <61° on Nov 10, 2026? · 60° or below | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 8% | 3% | 36 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 63-64° on Nov 10, 2026? · 63° to 64° | 60¢ | 60% | 1.7¢ | 31% | 79% | 24 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >64° on Nov 9, 2026? · 65° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | — | 1% | 14 | Nov 10, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Nov 10, 2026? · 67° to 68° | 2¢ | 2% | 0.1¢ | 12% | 3% | 6 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be 61-62° on Nov 10, 2026? · 61° to 62° | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | 19% | 7% | 6 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
| Will the maximum temperature be >68° on Nov 10, 2026? · 69° or above | 0¢ | 0% | 0.0¢ | 4% | 1% | 0 | Nov 11, 06:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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