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Larger Senate margin: Hinson vs. Marshall on Kalshi
If Roger Marshall's margin in the Kansas U.S. Senate election minus Ashley Hinson's margin in the Iowa U.S. Senate election is above 0 percentage points in the November 3, 2026 general election, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Iowa Secretary of State, Kansas Secretary of State.
Market says (typical open contract)
94%
Median YES price across 2 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
11% 😈
Mostly decided, says the market. You are paying a fee to collect a few cents the market already agrees on.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
| 95¢ (now) | 0.3¢ | $0.18 | 95.3% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin be larger than Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Ashley Hinson | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 11% | 11,518 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
| Will Roger Marshall's Kansas Senate margin be larger than Ashley Hinson's Iowa Senate margin in the November 3, 2026 general election? · Roger Marshall | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 9,382 | Dec 07, 14:59 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
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