Markets › Kalshi › Financials
Hilton KPI on Kalshi
If Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. reports above 76% US occupancy in Q4 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
Settles on: Fiscal.ai.
Market says (typical open contract)
38%
Median YES price across 22 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.
Real-world odds
—
No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.
Luck needed meter
76% 😈
Half luck. The favorite is clear, the fee is not small, and the payout on the favorite is thin.
The cover charge
| If you buy at | Fee per contract | On $50 | Win rate to break even |
|---|---|---|---|
| 30¢ | 1.5¢ | $2.45 | 31.5% |
| 38¢ (now) | 1.6¢ | $2.17 | 39.6% |
| 50¢ | 1.8¢ | $1.75 | 51.7% |
| 70¢ | 1.5¢ | $1.05 | 71.5% |
| 90¢ | 0.6¢ | $0.35 | 90.6% |
Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.
Open contracts right now
| Contract | YES price | Implied | Fee at this price | Real-world odds | Luck needed | Volume | Closes |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 70.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 70.0% | 52¢ | 52% | 1.7¢ | — | 95% | 8 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 76.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 76.0% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 72.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 72.0% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 71.5% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 71.5% | 8¢ | 8% | 0.5¢ | — | 15% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 71.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 71.0% | 16¢ | 16% | 0.9¢ | — | 31% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 70.5% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 70.5% | 32¢ | 32% | 1.5¢ | — | 63% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 69.5% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 69.5% | 74¢ | 74% | 1.4¢ | — | 53% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 69.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 69.0% | 88¢ | 88% | 0.8¢ | — | 25% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 68.5% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 68.5% | 94¢ | 94% | 0.4¢ | — | 13% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 68.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 68.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.3¢ | — | 9% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 64.0% US occupancy in Q4 2026? · Above 64.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Jun 10, 11:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 76.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 76.0% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 6% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 72.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 72.0% | 3¢ | 3% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 71.5% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 71.5% | 4¢ | 4% | 0.3¢ | — | 8% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 71.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 71.0% | 6¢ | 6% | 0.4¢ | — | 12% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 70.5% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 70.5% | 11¢ | 11% | 0.7¢ | — | 22% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 70.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 70.0% | 22¢ | 22% | 1.2¢ | — | 44% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 69.5% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 69.5% | 38¢ | 38% | 1.6¢ | — | 76% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 69.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 69.0% | 57¢ | 57% | 1.7¢ | — | 86% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 68.5% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 68.5% | 75¢ | 75% | 1.3¢ | — | 50% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 68.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 68.0% | 87¢ | 87% | 0.8¢ | — | 26% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
| Will Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. report above 64.0% US occupancy in Q1 2027? · Above 64.0% | 96¢ | 96% | 0.2¢ | — | 7% | 0 | Aug 25, 10:00 UTC |
Who actually wins this market
- Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
- The venue, on every fee.
- Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.
Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.