What is the fee on Kalshi for this market?

At the current typical price of 50¢, about 2¢ per contract (7% × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity). On a $50 trade that is about $1.73.

What win rate do I need to break even?

About 52% if you hold to settlement, against a market price of 50%. The gap is the fee.

Markets › Kalshi › Science and Technology

Hodge Conjecture resolution on Kalshi

If Hodge Conjecture in its official Clay Mathematics Institute formulation is resolved before Jan 1, 2032 under the Payout Criterion and that resolution has not been retracted, withdrawn, repudiated, or rescinded prior to the Expiration time, then the market resolves to Yes.

Settles on: The Washington Post, The Economist, Science, The Source Agencies are, in hierarchical order, the Clay Mathematics Institute, the New York Times, Bloomberg News, The Wall Street Journal, the American Mathematical Society, the International Mathematical Union, The Guardian, the Associated Press, Reuters, Scientific American.

Market says (typical open contract)

50%

Median YES price across 6 open contracts, 10 Nov 2026 04:28 UTC.

Real-world odds

—

No independent base rate yet. Until we connect one (sportsbook consensus, forecasts, the score), the market's own price is the best public forecast, and the fee sits on top of it.

Luck needed meter

99% 😈

Mostly luck. The market itself expects the favorite to lose this often; the fee is the only certainty.

The cover charge

Fee and break-even by purchase price
If you buy at	Fee per contract	On $50	Win rate to break even
30¢	1.5¢	$2.45	31.5%
50¢	1.8¢	$1.75	51.7%
51¢ (now)	1.7¢	$1.72	52.7%
70¢	1.5¢	$1.05	71.5%
90¢	0.6¢	$0.35	90.6%

Resting orders pay no fee on this series. Formula: 7% × contracts × price × (1 − price), rounded up, on orders that take liquidity. Break-even assumes you hold to settlement; trading out early pays the fee twice.

How long until your balance is $0 in this market? →

Open contracts right now

Open contracts in this series with price, implied probability, volume and close time
Contract	YES price	Implied	Fee at this price	Real-world odds	Luck needed	Volume	Closes
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2027? · Before 2027	4¢	4%	0.2¢	—	7%	2,513	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2028? · Before 2028	15¢	15%	0.9¢	—	30%	260	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2029? · Before 2029	36¢	36%	1.6¢	—	72%	31	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2031? · Before 2031	57¢	57%	1.7¢	—	85%	12	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2032? · Before 2032	66¢	66%	1.6¢	—	67%	1	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC
Will the Hodge Conjecture be resolved before 2030? · Before 2030	50¢	50%	1.7¢	—	99%	1	Jan 07, 15:00 UTC

Who actually wins this market

Whoever posts the resting orders and collects the spread without paying a fee.
The venue, on every fee.
Not, on average, the person clicking buy because the chart is going their way. That was us.

Still want to play? Read the deal first: what the account asks for, what the bonus really is, and whether we are paid. Vendors sell bots for markets like this one; see the bot benchmark before you pay for one.